WoW Rest Stop

Have you ever had a moment when you had do to something?  This "something" didn't make sense to you but suddenly you had an urge to do it and before you knew it you jumped into the deep end of the pool without looking?  This desire can be little things that don't mean much to grand designs meant to change the world.

I had something like this happen to me last week when I was reading a lore article about the World of Warcraft.  I can't remember the exact article but something in it started bugging me and soon I started thinking about the current Alliance / Horde strategy in the World of Warcraft (again ... I know it sounds a bit crazy but I did warn you).  My main complaint was that neither side has a strategy that makes sense.  A good example is the Horde base in the Badlands.  There isn't another Horde base within 3 territories but there it is in the Badland, nestled in the northwest corner of the map.  That got me to wondering -- how does this base get supplies and why hasn't the alliance taken it?  If you look at a WoW map you see inconsistencies like that everywhere.  I do realize this is just a game but it is about war and in war logistics are often more important than armies.  This inconsistency is especially true in Cataclysm but primarily focused on the Alliance side.

In Cataclysm there are 3 main offenses occurring, 1) the Horde advance into Ashenvale, 2) the Undead advance Alterac/Arathi, and 3) the Alliance advance into the Barrens.  Let's look at these individually:

• Orc Horde - Advanced into Ashenvale to take territory so they had a better source of supplies for their Orgrimmar nearby -- Makes sense.
• Undead Horde - Advanced into Alterac/Arathi for a better source of supplies and possibly to control the entire northern half of the Eastern Kingdoms - Makes sense.
• Alliance -  Advance into the Barrens to support the Night Elves who were being attacked in Ashenvale from the North Barrens.  The only close Alliance base is Theramore but it is only a seaport with little control of the interior.  It has no good way to feed itself let alone support an invading army.  The Alliance army marched from this point, through the swamp, north through the Barrens to eventually link with the night elves in Stonetalon.  From a military standpoint the advance is impressive but the army is grossly overextended and it wouldn't take a huge effort by the Horde cut off these troops from their line of supply forcing the Alliance to either retreat or surrender when the supplies ran out. - This strategy makes no sense.

The Alliance are in a stalemate in the Barrens.  What happens next?  The Horde advance has been stopped as well but the Undead are virtually unopposed in the North.  Any general looking at the map would know he would have to change his strategy or lose all their forces in the Northern part of the Eastern Kingdoms.

The question is what would Varian do?  A good general doesn't make a rash decisions so I envisioned a meeting with all his top generals to plan the next step of the war.  That's where the blog post from a few days ago originated.  I first looked at the logistics/industry/population for each side then studied the geography.  I  picture the flow of men and material from the home front to the war front and also considered the motivations for each side.  I don't want to say too much because I plan to complete the story and I don't want to give too much away.  Suffice it to say that I'm bringing in about 20 characters and giving each of them my own take on their personality then letting my imagination run wild.

So going back to my initial question - have you ever had a moment when you just had to do something?  I had that happen to me last week and it was to write the next chapter of the Warcraft story.  I know it is highly unlikely that anyone but me will ever read it but it is just something I have to do.  I have to say I am finding the process a lot of fun.  I must warn anyone that does attempt to read it that it will be very rough.  I'm writing the story freely in my head and responding in the moment how I think the characters would respond.  I'm sure there will be parts that will need a rewrite if it were ever to make complete sense as random thoughts rarely interconnect perfectly.  For now that isn't the point as I need to hear the discussion in my head so I can write this story ... and like when I read any story I'm really looking forward to see how it ends.

Chapter 5 - The Northern War

A few minutes later the king tapped a glass with his knife to get everyone's attention.  "Let's start back up and I will let Mathias run this part of the discussion.  I probably should warn you -- eat quick because the discussion is going to get pretty gruesome."  He looked at Commander Singleton.  "I know all of you have been through a lot but there are some thing well.... I'll just let Mathias explain."

Mathias stood and walked to the part of the map that represented the northern part of the continent.

"Essentially our Northern Front is made up of two areas - the Highlands and the human settlements on the Northern Contintent.  We have had great success in the Highlands but were mainly focused on supporting the Red Dragonflight in that area.  Even with our success against Deathwing's forces, the Dragonmaw orcs are a large threat and will no doubt bog down Alliance operations in that area for a long long time."

The King asked, "What's the latest on Grim Batol?"

Keegan spoke up, "We have sent many expeditions into it's depths but the place is cursed so I don't see us pacifying the place any time soon.  As it is Mathias is correct though.  There's no love lost between the Wildhammer and the Dragonmaw.  I'd bet the two sides are still fighting in the Highlands when my grandchildren's grandchildren are born.  Nasty bunch them Orcs."

Mathias continued, "The Highlands aren't the problem in the north as the Dragonmaw threat is limited.  The issue is the Forsaken."  Mathias moved the alliance and horde markers on the map.  "This was essentially how our forces were aligned before the Cataclysm."  Then he moved the markers and removed the Alliance markers and added addtional Horde units.

General Twinbraid interrupted, "Where is the Horde getting all these reinforcements to send to the Undercity to help with their advance?  I would assume the orcs spent all there reserves attacking me in Kalimdor."

Mathias nodded, "That was our question as well.  I sent a few spies north to Lorderon to see if they could get an accurate count of unit strength and this is what we found."  He started to place something on the table the quickly added, "I hope you have strong stomaches."

The gnomes have created an experiment device we can use that captures images.  The placed a few images on the table.  "This is what remains of Southshore."  Anduin looked but only saw structures surrounded by purple puddles of goo.

Anduin saw Marshall Stoutmantle turn white, "Is that what I think it is?".

"I'm afraid so Gyran.  We thought we'd seen the last of the Forsaken plague at the Wrathgate but it appears that Sylvannus used it to destroy Southshore's population.  We don't know the lethality but we do know she made the town uninhabitable by humans for a long long time.  The sad part ... this isn't even close to the worst news", and he threw more images on the table.

"Is that human heads?" someone asked.

"Yes.  We don't know the reason they have humans literally planted in what used to be a garden.  Our scouts report that as humans are captured they are put into this pit some alive / some dead though occasionally someone will come along and kill them with a shovel.  We've found other pits but nothing quite like this one.  This picture happens to be from the area formerly known as Hillsbrad Fields."

 Anduin couldn't help himself, "That's barbaric!"

"Aye laddie", he heard Kurdran mutter across the table.


Marshall Stoutmantle asked, "Do we know if there any humans alive in the area?"

Matthias added, "Not that we can find but there's one other development but first I will have Halfus explain his forces role in the northern battle so far."

A tall man stood and walked beside Mathias.  "For those that don't know me, I'm Halfus Wyrmbreaker of the 7th Legion.  I've lead my men from Hyjal to Silithus.  From Naxxramas to Icecrown.  I thought I'd seen everything but I was wrong.  As many of you know we received a distress call from the Gilneans requesting our support against Sylvannus.  We knew when we left Northrend that it was going to be bad because the Gilneas have a long history of sulf sufficience especially considering they were practically impregnable behind the Greymane Wall.  When we arrived we saw that the Cataclysm cracked the wall along with destroying part of the coastline making a Horde invasion of the town pretty easy.  We found out later that after the Cataclysm occured, the Forsaken army headed straight for the breach and landed troops on the south.  south through the breach and decimated the Gilneans with a combination of the Forsaken Plague and just overwhelming force.  A force so large that the Gilneans felt they had no choice but to turn themselves into worgen to have a chance to survive.  The newly invigorated Gilneans fought bravely for a while but the Forsaken numbers were just too much and eventually they had no choice but to leave their homeland on Night Elf rescue ships.  We arrived a few days after the evacuation and sent in a submarine in under the cover of darkness to look for stragglers.  We've picked up a lot of rebel worgen and they have been a great source of information.  I'm currently stationed off the Gilnean coast biding my time until we can find a soft spot in the Horde's defenses."

General Twinbraid interjected, "I've got to say those escaped Gilneans have been a great addition to the alliance even if they are a wee bit scary.  Not big talkers though."

The king added, "Genn Greymane is a great addition to the Alliance.  We are happy to have him even if it was under less than ideal circumstances."

Anduin had gotten to know Greymane very well since his arrival in Stormwind.  He was a nice man though he still grieved terribly for the recent loss of his son and homeland.  Anduin wondered why his dad chose to exclude him from this meeting since they Genn seemed to have taken the role as one of his dad's closest advisors. 

Mathias threw another stack of pictures on the desk.  "Here is the last piece of the puzzle of what is happening in the North."

Stoutmantle once again was the first to speak, "Is that what I think it is? What is a Val'kyr doing out of Northrend?"

"The Forsaken were an accidental byproduct of the Scourge during 3rd war and are mainly made up of the unfortunate citizens who happened to live in an area attacked by them.  All forsaken were first turned into mindless zombies obeying the commands of the Lich King.  Sylvannus was the first to break free and helped others do that same, eventually attracting a small army of followers which settled in their former home of Lordereon, now which she now calls the Undercity."  Mathias saw he was losing his audience so he continued.

"I have heard in recent years occassionally an undead will turn into a Forsaken but it has become rare event.  We were hopeful that it would only take a few generation before these abominations would die out and we could reclaim our the human kingdoms.  That's where the Val'kyr come in.  The Lich King's Val'kyr have now pledged themselves to Sylvannus and she is using them to turn human dead almost immediately into additional Forsaken.  Want to know why Gilneas fell?  It wasn't just the Cataclysm opening the wall."  He threw a series of pictures demonstrating the process.  "She killed and turned the people of Southshore, the people of Ambermill, the people of Hillsbrad, and even the people of Gilneas themselves.  Gilneas never had a chance."

Stoutmantle gave out a low whistle, "It's like she's the Lich King all over again.

Mathias went to the map and moved some units around.

"Sylvannus force's have moved quickly.   She has taken all of Silverpine forest, moved into Hillsbrad and taken Southshore then everything to the Thordin's Wall and beyond.  She's also made moves in the Plaguelands moving into Andorrhal and taking that city.  That's what she has done so far with her new Val'kyr allies I'm sure she's only begun."

The king gave Matthias a sign to speed it up a bit.

"So where does that leave us?  In the North the Alliance still has quite a few territories but they are all hanging by a thread.  Our Northernmost base is in Chillwind which is where we based both our attack on Andorhal and our attack on Tarren Mill.  You can bet that Chillwind is going to get attacked soon by Sylvannas as it is more of a supply depot than a proper fort.  The other territories close by are our Wildhammer friends in Aerie Peak and the high elves of Quel'Danil Lodge.  After that our only other position is the few remaining humans that gathered at Refuge Pointe near Stormgarde Keep."

"Our supply lines consist of a single road from Thandol Span up the new road we built through to the Hinterlands, past Aerie Peak to Chillwind.  From there we support our ongoing battles in Alterac Valley and Arathi Basin.  Both of these battles have been bogged down for years but we are danger of losing them if our supply lines are cut."

"That brings me to the final piece of the puzzle."  Mathias threw a final picture on the table.  Anduin looked at it and saw the image of what looked like an undead warrior.

"If you look closely at the picture you will perhaps recognize the armor.  Anyone?  No?  This is an image of Galen Trollbane, the former Prince of Stromgarde castle."

Stoutmantle gasped, "He's undead?"

"We have reason to believe that Sylvannus targeted him for a very specific reason.  I have it on good authority that Slyvannus actions don't have universal support in the Horde but with a Trollbane at her side she can take Stromgarde castle and claim she is only supporting his ancestrial claim.  If she is able to take Stromgarde then the supply road I mentioned earlier is untenable and the Alliance would have no chioce but to retreat from all our holdings in the North and abandon everyone who stayed to their fate."

He let that sink in a bit then added, "We aren't sure when she will attack but our guess is she isn't going to move forward until she has an overwhelming force and then attack with all fury.  My best guess is we have about 2 months."  Mathias turned and looked at King Varian.

Anduin looked around the table and saw the shocked looks on everyone's faces.  He saw his father pause for effect.  He'd seen his dad do this a thousand times in the past and the tension built to unbearable levels then take control.  His father broke it by saying, "I realize this is a lot to take in. There are about 10 people in the Alliance outside this room that know what you now know so I should not have to remind you that this is for your ears only.  We don't need the people to hear about this and needlessly worry about it."

Kurdran rose and faced the King.  "I thought I saw everything during my stay in the Outlands but this takes the prize.  We Wildhammer are self sufficient and I'd like to think we could hold Aerie peak for years but that's just fool's talk.  I didn't realize Slyvannus had moved so far.  Have you spoken to my cousin Falstad or Muradin Bronzebeard about this?"

"Not yet.  The only people that know are in this room and people in SI:7.  If you are wondering why I haven't brought my allies into this it's because I don't know what to do and that's what I need you to help me decide.  As i see it we have two choices.  We can either 1) quickly resettle the people in the North to Kalimdor and essentially give Slyvannus the lands she wants or 2) we can fall back in Kalimdor and take the fight to Sylvannus.  I don't see a third option -- we just don't have the resources to do both.  To study the problem I want to split you into teams. 

I'm putting Alpha Team under the command of General Twinbraid.  General, I want you to evaluate our options in Kalimdor assuming we focus all our forces on that area especially centered on Mulgore and assuming we will evacuate any humans that want to go into an area designated to be the start of a new city in that area.  Your team will consist of Jaina, Dugan, Troutman and Roberts.

I'm putting Bravo Team under the command of Commander Halfus.  Commander, as your army will more than likely spearhead any invasion into the North I want you to investigate a strategy that reverse the balance in the North with a focus on protecting the existing human population.  Because we don't have enough troops to do this with existing forces you are going to need to determine what we are going to pull from the West keeping in mind we can't totally abandon our Night Elf friends.  Your team will be made up of Ebonlocke, Stoutmantle, Singleton, and Kurdran."

Anduin felt a twinge of relief when he heard he wasn't on either of the teams.

"... I'm putting Delta Team under the command of Prince Anduin ..."

Anduin coughed, "Wha..."

"Anduin, Your team will be looking for ideas that are out of the ordinary.  Think special forces and lightning strikes.  Nothing is out of bounds on your team and you have all forces at your discretion.  Your team will consist of Aubrey, Blueheart, Firebeard, and Thassarian.

Since I want to give you plenty of time to prepare I'm going to let you break off into your groups for the evening.  We will meet back here first thing tomorrow morning to discuss your plans.

Any Questions?  No?  Good.  See you tomorrow."

Part 4 - The Eastern War

As Anduin entered the room he noticed a dozen eyes glance in his direction and knew they were all thinking about him.  About his outburst.  About what his dad said to him.  It was a lot easier when he was younger because even though he was a leader no one took him seriously and he didn't mind.  Now he could see the eyes constantly judging him, praying that he could be the man his father was.  Jaina broke his concentration when she said,

"Well I don't see any obvious wounds but then again I'm not a priest."

"Ha ha."  Anduin said sarcastically.  "You know not all wounds are visible to the eye."

"Well the fact that you made it back to the meeting is proof enough for me."

And with that she turned and walked away leaving Anduin feeling a bit better when he realized what she meant.

"Would you like something to eat sir?

Anduin turned and saw Elaine Trias holding a platter filled with all sorts of breads and cheeses.

"Hello Elaine I didn't see you come in."

"You know Elias.  He loves to cater parties and would never miss a gathering like this.  I highly recommend the Highland Sharp.  It's our newest recipe and I think it's Elias' best creation yet."  She handled him a piece and Anduin popped it into his mouth.  It tasted to him just like any other cheese but he wanted to be polite so he responded,

"Wow that is good."

"Then you must have more", and handed him a platter piled with cheese and before he knew it Elaine was off to the next guest.

"Ummm thanks, I guess." Anduin said to no one in particular.

"You will find that goes down a lot better if you have something to drink.  Perhaps a nice glass of milk?"

Anduin turned to see Mathias Shaw standing in front of him with a glass of milk.  "Uh sure thanks Mathias."

Anduin had never known Mathias to do anything without an ulterior motive so he waited for the inevitable question.

"Elias was always a better rogue than he is as a cheese-maker.  I'm amazed how well he's done."

Anduin wondered if there was a point to Mathias' question so he decided to wait some more.

"How's your dad doing?"

"I don't know.  He's fine I guess."

"He talks about you all the time you know.  About how proud he is of you ... and how you will be the ruler to bring peace a lasting peace to Azeroth."

"I don't know about all that."

Mathias just smiled and walked away.

As Anduin pondered Mathias' words his dad entered the room.

"Sorry for the delay.  Now where were we.  Oh yes... we had just finished the discussion on the Western Front."  Anduin noticed a few looks in his direction at that comment.  "Let's talk about the East.  As you know we don't really have an active battle in the East, more like a series of isolated battles.  So with that let's just go around the table.  Let start with Goldshire ... Marshall Dugan?"

Dugan rose, "Nothing really to report sir.  No Horde activity.  Our patrols rarely run into resistance and the few enemies in the area are easily dispatched.  Proximity to Stormwind probably doesn't hurt."

The king nodded, "Probably not.  What about Westfall, Marshall Stoutmantle?"

Stoutmantle looked a bit uncomfortable but rose anyway, "Thanks sire.  There's really not much to say about Westfall.  Like Goldshire there's no Horde to speak of but we are having a difficult time keeping the criminal element in check.  Our biggest problem isn't military it's the economy which is part due to the manpower losses from the last war.  Many of the field that used to fill the silo's in Stormwind now barely can feed the people in Westfall.  My biggest worry these days isn't the Horde but that the people are turning to crime instead of staying on the farm.  This all goes back to the Defias..."

The king interjected, "We all know the story of the Defias, Stoutmantle.  No need to repeat it."

Anduin knew the Defias story by heart since they killed his mother.  The Defias were essentially Stonemason's that rebuilt Stormwind during the 3rd war but rebelled when the didn't get paid on time.  His father sympathized with them but  the city was broke and when one of the protests ended with his mother dead, the newly named Defias left town and retreated into Westfall.  They'd been hunted to near extinction so it was difficult to hear that they might make a comeback.
The king changed the topic, "What about Darkshire - Commander Ebonlock?"

Anduin had heard many stories about Darkshire but long ago decided it was a place he wanted to avoid.  The city was the site of a big battle from the 1st Orc War and even though the area was rebuilt the aura of death hung over the place.  He knew the locals tried to live as they had before but some things are impossible.

"Things in Darkshire are similar to the way they've been since the town was rebuilt.  We are in a constant battle with undead and wild animals but no Horde activity."

"OK.  Let's see, Colonel Troutman from Redridge?  I know you've had some attacks.  How do things stand right now?"

"As you know we just beat back a massive invasion from Deathwing's forces in the Redridge mountains."

Anduin noticed a few looks of surprise around the table.  This was news to him as well.

Troutman continued, "Frankly I don't know how we did it.  We were outgunned and outmanned but lets just say we had a few good men.  I say "had" a few good men because they are all dead now.  Dead or moved on.  My forces in the area literally consist of a few bridge guards and the few men guarding the Three Point Tower.  I'd ask for more men if I didn't already know everyone else faces the same situation."

"Any recent activity?"

"Nothing major but we are keeping a close watch."

"Good to hear.  Joanna Blueheart from our new base in Marshtide."

Anduin looked at this woman and wondered how someone that young could be leading an invasion.  She didn't look any older than 25 and Anduin found himself checking her out in a way that never occurred to him with the others.

"Thanks King Varian.  A few months ago I was sent as the commander of an expeditionary force we eventually called Marshtide Watch.  As we all know the earthquakes caused immense devastation all over Azeroth but change isn't always bad.  The Swamp of Sorrows always had great potential but it was remote so we ignored it.  After the Cataclysm, our scouts noted that the tidal basin surrounding the sunken temple had broke open to the see forming a perfect location for a deep water port.  My group was immediately dispatched to set up a base.  The Horde have always had a small base nearby in Stonard  so it really was a race to see who could take advantage first and we won.  Ever since then we have been under constant attack by Horde forces from Stonard but we've driven them back every time.  I'm confident that this base is safe and there is a chance we might take the Horde base.  I have to say the Horde are amazingly resilient considering they don't any other bases nearby.  We get our supplies from the sea and I can only guess they are getting supplies from Outland through the Dark Portal or by windrider from Stranglevale."

"Can you eliminate the Horde?"

"With enough men, sure."

The King nodded.  "Ok.  That's it for our Eastern forces.  Let me summarize by saying that we are strongest in this area centered on Stormwind and less so the further you get from the city.  The economy has been hit hard by the war and the Cataclysm but it is slowly coming back.  Horde activity in the area is practically zero though that doesn't mean there aren't other dangers to keep an close eye on ... like a dragon that likes to knock down our statutes.  Other than Deathwing, our current biggest  threat is if the Blackrock orcs decide to hit us again.  Sound like the current situation?"

Everyone at the table nodded in agreement.  "Anduin?  Anything to add?"

"No father."  Anduin thought he might have caught a hint of disappointment to his response though he had no idea why.

"OK, well lunch is here so let's take another quick break.  Bring it back to the table as I we've still got a lot of things to get through before the end of the day."

This time Anduin decided to find Jaina.  He found her talking to Keegan.

"Sorry to interrupt Keegan, but do you have a moment Jaina?"

"Anything for you my Prince."

Anduin got the distinct impression he was being mocked though he noticed Jaina did that to everyone.  They walked to a secluded spot in the room and he asked,

"Did I mess up again?"

"What do you mean?"

"When dad asked me the question.  Did I mess up again?  He just seemed disappointed."

"Perhaps though I'm not an expert on your father by any stretch of the imagination.  He probably just wants you to get used to taking control of situations like this and wanted you to say something."

"But why wasn't it ok when I spoke about Taurajo."  Anduin paused a second, "Oh wait... nevermind.. I think I get it now.  The issue before was I didn't have all the facts on Taurajo.  By not knowing all the fact I basically told his commanders that I didn't agree with him."

"Pretty much.  Here's the thing.  You can disagree with anyone's opinion but doing it after the fact is critcism and that is a very different thing.  Especially when your dad is the king."

"This is so confusing."

"You'll get better at it over time.  In the end I wouldn't worry too much.  You are the Prince of Stormwind after all.  Eventually everyone will be kissing your ...."

"Jaina!"

"Well it's true but don't worry.  You'll always have your Auntie Jaina to keep you in line."

"Good grief."

"Speaking of keeping you in line I noticed you sneaking quick a few looks at Commander Blueheart.  Was there something on her uniform that particularly interested you?

"Jaina!  My god."

"Oh the tongues in the army will be wagging soon about this one."

"How will they find out?"

"You know the old tale about gossipy housewives?  Well rumors in an army are worse.  All it is going to take in one comment to the enlisted folk and it will spread like wildfire.  Don't think the men in this room aren't as bad as any old maid when it comes to gossip though they might hold their tongue for you.  Though I personally think she is a bit old for you."


Anduin just glared at Jaina as she made a hasty retreat for the food line.

Part 3 - Father to Son

Anduin quietly closed the door as he entered but was aware that his dad's eyes were bearing down on him as he approached his desk.  Anduin thought of Jaina's advice and met his father's gaze and took pains not to look away.  As he stood there his father just stared so Anduin tried to assume a position of "at attention" that he had seen from many Alliance soldiers when they stood before a superior officer.  After a few moments of unbearable tension Anduin couldn't take it any longer and ask, "You wanted to see me sir?"

Varian stared at his son for a few moments then asked, "Why do you think I asked you to join me?"

"Because you want to yell at me for my outburst?"

"No not that.  I mean in the meeting, why do you think I included you in the meeting?  I've never had you in any of the meetings before today.  Why now?"

"I don't know exactly.  Because you want me to learn how the war is going?"  Anduin shifted uncomfortably.

"Nope.  I could have Ellian or Mathias do that at any time.  Why include you in this particular meeting?"

"I don't know.  I guess it has something to do with news from the North you mentioned."

"Exactly Anduin.  The news from the North."

"Now I want to ask you something else.  Who do you think ordered the attack on Taurajo?"

"General Hawthorne?"

"Do you really think we let our Generals attack any city they want?  Why do you think we have portal mages assigned to every staff?  The truth is I ordered the attack on Taurajo and everyone in that room knew it ... except you."

"And I questioned that decision in front of everyone."  Anduin lowered his head for a moment then raised his head.  "I don't agree with your decision to attack Taruajo father."

Anduin thought he saw a hint of a smile on his father's face but it quickly faded to one of steel, "Son I don't care what you think about my decision.  It is easy to judge, it is hard to be the decider and one day you will be in my spot.  The attack was only supposed to stop the flow of supplies and force the Horde back into the North Barrens.  We didn't plan for a massacre but once soldiers get into battle it is sometimes difficult to stop them after they've engaged."

"But why the Tauren?  I know Baine, he's an honorable man.  And I know he desires peace."

"I think our soldiers in the Southern Barrens would disagree.". 

"There had to be another way."

"I didn't see one.  Keep in mind they are part of the Horde and supported the Orc invasion into Ashenvale.  The orcs that burnt the city of Astranaar, the orcs that just blew up a night elf school in Stonetalon,  the orcs that .... well... let's just say the orcs and I go way back.  The Tauren may be a peaceful people but they are supporting my enemy.  Which makes them my enemy.  I don't have the luxury to treat my enemies different when we are at war.  And neither will you."

Anduin suddently realized, "So if you knew all this why did you have the commanders tell their tales?"

Varian looked solemnly at Anduin and said, "For you my son."

"You planned this?!?!  You wanted me to defy you in front of your commander's?"

"Not exactly.  It's always good to get information straight from the people responsible. but there is a lot more to the story son.  The commanders out there don't know it yet but we have a grave threat.  One that will probably live on past my reign as king and one that you will more than likely have to deal with when you are King.  I thought it was past time that I involve you in these discussions."

"I guess that makes sense."

"You have a lot of your mother in you especially her gentle nature and it will serve you well someday.  Then I see outbursts like what just occurred and realize there's a lot of me inside of you as well.  To be king you need compassion and aggression but the trick is knowing when they are appropriate."

"I think I understand.  I will keep my mouth shut."

"Listen and learn son.  I will call on you when I want your opinion and believe me, I do need it.  Go and tell the others I will be in momentarily."

"Before I go Dad ... can I ask a question?"

"In here you can ask me anything."

"I see you brought most of your military commanders but only a few political leaders.  Why aren't any nightelves, draenei or Ironforge dwarves here?  If this is so important why only basically human leaders along with the Wildhammer Keegan?"

Anduin saw a smile cross his father's face for the first time since the meeting began.  "You noticed that huh?  Trust me that everything will make sense eventually.  Let it play out and you will see.  Now get going, I'm sure everyone is waiting on us."

With that Anduin turned and left the room.

Mathias pointed at the door and the guards left the room and Ellias locked the door behind him as he stepped outside.  He saw Jaina chanting a spell suddenly the walls seemed to have a soft blue glow to them.  Mathias then spread a map out on the table that Anduin recognized a map of Azeroth.

The king started, "I want to again thank you all for coming to Stormwind on such short notice.  I'm sure you are all needed elsewhere but there have been some recent developments that need to be discussed."

Jaina waved her hand and tiles appeared on the map that represented Alliance units.  She waved her hand again and Horde Units appeared on the map as well.

"What I'd like to begin with is an update of the current situation in each of your area's of responsibility.  That way everyone here know's the big picture before we start planning.  Since the majority of our forces are involved in the Barrens campaign I thought we'd start with you General Twinbraid."

The stocky built dwarf looked a bit surprised then stood.

"I've not prepared anythin yer hi'ness nor met with my commanders recently but I suppose ye knew dat." 

He first looked to Commander's Roberts, Singleton and Admiral Aubrey then began, "As ye know, we decided to push into the Barrens after the Horde invaded our allies in Ashenvale.  The thought was that it was much easier for us to support them by invading through our bases in Theramore and Northwatch than try to create new base on the west coast of Darkshore.  As the bulk of the Horde forces where already engaged in the North we made rapid progress.  Then the Horde hit us hard from their base in the Crossroads and both sides dug in for fight.  It was at that point that the cataclysm occured and a Chasm formed right in the middle of the Barrens.  All our alliance forces North of the chasm were eliminated and in the south we still quite a fight on our hands.  I'll let my commander's fill you in from this point - Why don't you start Admiral Aubrey?"

Anduin saw that Aubrey was a younger man but one that already showing the signs of a man that one day would be quite portly.  He walked over to the map where his forces were portrayed and began to speak, "As you know my navy was almost completely destroyed when the chasm formed and since then have held the beachhead from the Horde fleet that are besieging Northwatch Keep.  We've held them off so far but we are low on supplies and I'm only feeding my men by sending hunting parties into the barrens.  We've got the high ground so we should be ok for a while but it is only a matter of time unless I get some supplies."

The King nodded and looked back to Twinbraid who pointed to Commander Singleton.  Singleton was even younger than Aubrey and he looked a bit nervous.

"Um sir, your highness.  You see my men are ... well ... you see."

Varian smiled.  "Slow down son, we have time.  Start from the beginning."

Singleton smiled and took a deep breath, "Well you see everything went well at first.  I was in command of the western flank of the attack and we had just taken Honor Stand when Deathwing struck.  It was horrible!  The sky exploded and the ground started to move.  We didn't know what else to do so I had my men form a defensive line.  That's when the earth split apart and I watched as half my command suddenly disappeared into the smoke.

Singleton stopped for a moment as his eyes began to tear.  He cleared his throat to compose himself.

"When the smoke cleared I realized that some of my men had survived but were on the other side of the chasm.  We looked a way to get to them but had to watch helplessly as the Horde forces surrounded then cut them down.  Not one survived."

Anduin saw his dad grind a fist into his other palm.  "The bastards."  Then he looked at Jaina.  "If that bastard Thrall hadn't attacked Ashenvale none of this would be necessary."

Jaina looked solemn but said nothing.

"Sorry for the interruption Commander Singleton, please continue."

"Well that's about it.  I sent scouts to the North and we have made contact with the Night Elves but we aren't in any position to help them.  In some ways the chasm is a blessing as the Horde can't attack us from the East but the problem isn't the Orcs, it's the Tauren.  They are slowly butchering our forces and most of the supplies that are sent North never reach us because of Tauren ambushes."

Varian almost laughed, "Tauren ambushes?  Tauren aren't exactly known for their stealth."

"It isn't stealth they use, it's the hills.  My entire left flank rests against a hill full of Tauren.  They've been running up and down them for centuries so they know every nook.  Every night we go to sleep the Tauren slip some forces into our camp and kill us.  I lose a few every night, I swear it's like they have a sixth sense for our weak spot.  We attempted to build a road to the top so we could have our engineers build a fortifications but its just not possible due to the incline.  Right now I'm slowly losing the ability to do any offensive action and soon I will have no choice but to retreat."

Anduin suddenly felt the need to talk and interrupted, "I don't understand." which draw a sharp look from his dad but he continued, "I don't understand why the Tauren are being so bloodthirsty.  I've met Baine and he's an honorable ... um ... Tauren."

The room was silent for a moment as no one knew how to respond so Commander Singleton added, "Everything changed after Taurajo was destroyed."

Anduin look horrified for a moment then said, "Destroyed? Why?"

The king looked at his son with sad eyes for a second.  "Son, things happen in war.  Things you don't plan.  Things you don't want but they happen all the same."

The King looked at Commander Singleton and asked, "Anything else?"

"No sir."

"Ok then.  General Twinbraid?"

"Ah yes.  Well that leaves Commander Roberts at Fort Truimph."

Anduin saw a small man with sunken eyes stand and walk to the map.

"In looking at the map you'd think I have the easiest job of any of the forces in Kalimdor.  We are in the process of building a fort with secure flanks and easy access to the military road to Theramore.  Even after the Cataclysm hit we were barely affected.  Recently a small chasm has formed in middle of the valley floor and the Horde used that as an opportunity to build a fort directly across the valley from us.  Considering this fort is far from any major Horde city we thought we could starve them out.  As the months passed we decided that if we stopped the supplies coming from Taurajo their fort would have no choice but to surrender.  General Hawthorne planned a raid and waited until the hunter's left camp then stuck hard.  The attack was supposed to be a simple process of burning their stores then retreating.  It soon became a full fledged fight and before we knew it the whole town was on fire and everyone was dead.  Old-young, women-children.  Everyone.  It just got out of hand."

Roberts left hand began to shake.

"That's when the attacks started for real.  I have got to say that I've been in a few battles but facing a charge of a hunder grief stricken Tauren is something I'd rather not experience ever again.  Many died on both sides but the sad thing there was no effect on either fortress.  A few weeks later a Horde assassin killed General Hawthorne which left me in charge of the fort.  Every day we face more Horde troops charging our lines.  I'm not sure where they get all their men because even with our advantages my men are growing weary of the continuous attacks."  Roberts looked at Twinbraid to let him know he was done talking.

"Aye ... thanks Com'deer for your report.  So that's our current status.    Bottom line, we are barely holding on in every sector and desperately need to shore up our supply lines.  We can't go North through the Barrens because of the chasm.  We can't go Northwest to Stonetalon mountains because it would be too easy to cut our supply lines.  Our only choices are to either do nothing and starve, retreat and consolidate our position, or take the fight to the Tauren and attack them in Mulgore."

Anduin stood and practically yelled.  "Why would we attack the Tauren!?!?!"

The king suddenly looked weary.  "Let's take a break but first I'd like to take a moment to remember the sacrifice of General Hawthorne."  Everyone bowed their heads for a few moments then the king raised his head and said, "Meet back here in 10 minutes."  As people started to mill about Varian turned to Anduin and said, "Meet me in my chambers." and walked out of the room.

All eyes turned to Anduin and as he watched his dad retreat into the distance.  Others in the room continued to steal glances at him which distracted him from noticing Jaina was standing beside him.

"You know have a lot of your mother in you."

He turned to her and noted a smile on her face, "Why are you so happy?"

"Because I'm glad I wasn't the one that had to say that.  Now hold your ground with your dad.  He will respect you more if you do."

"I'm guessing this isn't going to be a fun experience."

"It never is Anduin but don't think your dad is going to enjoy it any either."  She placed a hand on Anduin's shoulder.  "Good luck."

And with that Anduin left the room and entered the King's chamber.

Part 1 - Prologue

Anduin watched as his father passed by him without a glance and entered his war room. 

"Anduin!"

Anduin poked his head around the corner. "Yes father?"

"I want you to sit in on this meeting.  There's been some developments up North and it's about time I involve you in these types of discussions."

"Certainly Father."

A few moments later Anduin noted that a large group of men were headed up the ramp presumably entering the castle.  Unlike most Stormwind citizens they were covered in dirt so he guessed they were from had recently arrived from the front as none had taken the time to put on their dress uniforms like many of the Stormwind nobles did when they met with him father.  Anduin recognized most of them and quickly realized that his father's front line commanders were headed his way.  He was surprised to see Colonel Troutman of Lakeshire along with Marshall Dugan of Goldshire, Marshall Stoutmantle of Westfall, and Commander Ebonlocke of Darkshire.  He had seen Matthias Shaw head of the SI:7 and Ellias Trias talking to his dad earlier which he had thought was odd but said nothing.  Once the king reentered the room, everyone hurried to find a seat at the table.

As the men were getting seated a disturbance shook the air and soon a portal was seen and three figures stepped out.

"Dammit Jaina I wish you wouldn't do that.  There are supposed to be magical protections to stop anyone from portal-ling into my castle.  You know I"m going to have to discipline your mages because of that."

"Sorry your highness", Jaina replied in non repentant tone.  "You said you wanted us here as soon as possible".

"Yes, I suppose I did and thanks to our guests for coming so quickly."

Anduin chuckled a bit at what the Stormwind mages would think if they heard his father associate them with Jaina.  Jaina was the most talented mage he knew but she had never been accepted by other mages since she left for Theramore.  Anduin heard the sounds of heavy footfalls behind Jaina and tried to see who it was but it was soon apparent when Kurdran Wildhammer spoke out.

"I swore off portal travel when I came home from the Outlands so this best be important Varian."

"Oh it is Kurdran."

Anduin saw another dwarf was with him Kurdran but didn't recognize him.  Kurdran ended the suspense by clapping the newcomer on the back and announcing, "May I present Keegan Firebeard, representative of the my Eastern Wildhammer brethren".

"Welcome, Keegan and my condolences on your recent incarceration.  Life sentence I hear?"

The men in attendence chuckled respectfully.  Anduin knew there was recently a marriage between two of the Wildhammer clans to bind their families together.  Keegan must have been the groom.

"Aye yer hi'ness.  Got me a right fine lass."

"I bet you did."  The men at the table continued to chuckle at the statement as the dwarf sat mute deciding any further comment would only make it worse.

Anduin had heard legendary stories about the lost Wildhammer of the east and noted that while he looked a little disheveled there was little differece between Keegan and the other dwarves he had known.

"That's interesting.  No Ironforge dwarfs at all.  The only other dwarf in the room was General Twinbraid who was in charge of the Kalimdor offensive. I wonder where Muradin and Brann are?"

The King interrupted his train of thought when he said, "Let's get this started Mathias."

Blizzard's problem right now is that they are now part of a big corporation and all corporations are run by the investors that like more predictability than is usual in the gaming industry.  The gaming industry is a hit or miss proposition as titles these days cost millions of dollars to develop but if the gaming public doesn't like it, the title won't sell.  That's why you see games like Call of Duty, Crysis, Madden, and Diablo getting multiple sequels because it is always safer to produce a sequel of something than new material.  Blizzard perhaps is the king of this if you consider that they haven't introduced a new world since they released Starcraft/Diablo in 1997/8.  They hit a home run in 2004 when they developed Warcraft 3 into the World of Warcraft and that leads us to today.

Blizzard's philosophy with WoW has been made up of 2 simple ideas to keep the subscriptions going.  The development cycle for WoW takes a long time so they plan to release a new expansion every 18 months..  In the interim they do major content patches to keep the player base happy.  In practice their development cycle has run closer to 2 years as seen by the release dates:

11/04: World of Warcraft
01/07: WoW: Burning Crusade
12/08: WoW: Wrath of the Lich King
12/10: WoW: Cataclysm

This development policy has been extremely successful but considering that the game is entering its 7th year and has peaked with 12 million subscribers I think it is safe to say that it has definitely hit market saturation.  (Note: the 12 million number is a bit misleading as about half that number uses a subscription model paying $15/month.  The rest based mostly in Asia pay a per hour/transaction fees).  As I said in the previous article most of Blizzard's income is from monthly subscriptions and not new game purchases but monthly subscriptions are now trending downward.  I am sure this is something that Blizzard has seen coming for a long time and have been planning to make sure they stabilize that income.  One solution is the new property they are developing codenamed Titan but that is 2-3 years away and isn't guaranteed to have WoW's success.  They really need something to fix people to the monthly subscription and in my opinion the answer is Battle.Net.

Last year, Blizzard made a big push to include a revamped version of Battle.Net in Starcraft 2 and integrated it into WoW so that people playing either game could communicate.  They also updated their forums and did a lot of other behind the scenes things to create a system that could plug seamlessly into any property they developed.  Most players thought this was a cool feature but there's no way Blizzard did this just so WoW players could talk to their friends who happened to be playing Starcraft.  My feeling is Blizzard has much bigger plans for Battle.Net.

Before I talk more about that I want to mention the other Battle.Net like services in the industry.

• Steam  Steam is basically an online hub that knows all the games you have purchased from them and even lets you run games from them.  You don't need to have software because all you need is your Steam account to download/play anything in your catalog.  Steam was originally developed for the Half Life/Valve and was controversial at first but over time many other developers have been utilized the Steam platform.  Steam makes money for Valve two ways 1) Digital distribution is a lot cheaper than retail and 2) companies that use the Steam service have to pay Valve a %.  These companies gladly will do this because its a lot cheaper to distribute games this way.
• App Store - Apple's platform for Ipad/Iphone programs.  Programs are purchased through the App Store for a small fee and downloadable to your device.
• PSN/XBox Gold - Playstation and XBox both offer online services that cost a set amount that give users the ability to play each other in online games and also offers other downloadable services on their consoles.

Since I posted last night I've seen a few arguments that the 5% drop is meaningless because revenues are up 27%.  What these people are missing is the 5% drop is measured from January 1st to March 31st while the 27% increase in revenue is comparing Q1 2010 vs Q1 2011.  The 5% drop is concerning because this is the first time Blizzard has acknowledged that their subscription base has declined.  The 27% increase is about what I'd expect considering they have 3 things in Q1 2011 they didn't have in 2010, 1) Cataclysm box purchases at $40 each, 2) a surge in players coming back to the game @ $15/month to experience Cataclysm, and 3) Starcraft 2 sales.  The revenue bump of $51mm could be attributed to new box sales alone assuming they sold a little over a  million copies of Cataclysm in Q1 (not totally unreasonable considering a 12 million player base).  The problem is all three of the things that grew revenue in Q1 are in a decline with no new revenue sources in the near term.

The most interesting comment from their press conference to me is them mentioning the player base leaving and that is typical after a release.  Why would they say this if they didn't have to as Blizzard certainly had a great quarter?  The reason is investors aren't dumb and for the reasons mentioned above that revenue vs prior is going to have a sharp downturn the rest of the year.  They are throwing this out there to hold off investor questions and also so they can point to this again when the Q2, Q3, etc numbers come out.  Keep in mind that Starcraft 2 came out in the 3rd quarter of 2010 so there is very little chance that Blizzard will be able to duplicate their performance in that quarter.  Cataclysm hit in the 4th quarter so you can bet there will be a lot of pressure to get Diablo out the door by Thanksgiving but I doubt even that will be able to stem the tide if WoW subscriptions continue to decline.  The number that keeps banging in my head is that 87% of Blizzard's 2010 profit came from WoW.  That means that basically WoW was 87% and Starcraft2 was 13% or put another way ... you need 7 Starcraft 2s to equal WoW.  The bottom line is if WoWs subscriptions continue to decline there is no way Blizzard can meet last year's profit even with Diablo.

All this news does is make me a bit sad for the executives at Blizzard because they've always prided themselves on releasing content when it is done but I wonder if investor pressure will allow them that luxury in the future.  That's why I ended my previous comment with the line that Blizzard and Activision's relationship should be interesting to watch in the next year.  If Diablo is released in December as a buggy mess that gets patched to playability in 2012 we will know that the investors are now running the release schedule and that is only bad news for fans of Blizzard games.

*** I do have an idea of where I think they are headed to stem the tide but I will leave that for Part III.

http://investor.activision.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=575495

Blizzard/Activision has a big problem on their hands and despite the rosy predictions you better believe they know it.  The issue isn't the 5% drop but the fact that the playerbase is tired of the game.  This happens to all MMOs eventually and companies have two options -- release a totally new game or try to make your game an everchanging world.  Everquest did the former option which gave the market to Blizzard.  Blizzard is doing the latter and spent a majority of their development time redesigning the old world but it appears this isn't working as most players aren't doing anything other than the content from level 81-85.  This wouldn't be bad if they were attracting new players but it isn't happening and most low level areas are ghost towns.

Keep in mind that last year 87% of Blizzard's income came from WoW and that was in a year where they released Starcraft 2.  They do have Diablo3 and the Starcraft2 Zerg expansion on the horizon but given past history it will be a while before these games are released.  Combine that with the 5% drop in playerbase and Blizzard/Activision is facing a Cataclysm of a different sort.  Raising revenue is probably not an option so the only way Blizzard can duplicate their 2010 profit numbers is to cut costs.  Considering that most of their costs are fixed I doubt this is possible either.  Perhaps Activision's other divisions can make up the difference but it will be interesting to watch Blizzard and Activision's interaction over the next year (don't expect to get anything free this year that we haven't gotten previously).

Why do I raid?  It's a pretty simple question but lately one I've struggled to answer.  I started playing the game because it sounded fun and upon entry I found that Blizzard had created an amazing world.  I wandered aimlessly in the game for about a year until I found the Requiem guild and for the next 3 years I spent 3-4 nights a week with these people as we progressed from a casual family guild to a elite raiders that dominated the server.  It was very special and every night was a lot of fun.

Raiding is very intense and after 3 years I took a break.

WoW burnout is common but I decided that once the Cataclysm expansion came out that I was going to get back into raiding.  Over the past 3 months I've spent quite a bit of time getting ready to raid to the point that my gear is definitely ready for raiding and my experience in dungeons has my confidence at a pretty high level.  Tonight a guild group needed help in a 10 man and I decided to help.  As I entered an instance for a guild run for the first time in about 30 months, I experienced something I never considered during my comeback preparations.

It wasn't fun.

After the 4th wipe I actually looked at the clock and realized that it had only been 30 minutes and was thinking to myself, "I wonder how long we are going to raid?"

The reason this is a big realization is true raiding takes 3-4 hours a night meeting 2-4 times a week.  Wipes are part of the process but here I was thinking ... "How much longer?" after 30 minutes.  It got me to thinking.  "Am I have fun?" and truthfully the answer was no.

I think one the reasons I loved raiding was I really enjoyed my guild mates but that isn't the main reason.  For me, it all comes back to the realization I had at the end of Burning Crusade that Blizzard's virtual world isn't permanent and what is considered an amazing achievement today will be meaningless in 6 months.  Nothing in a virtual world can compare to the real world in terms of meaning which leads to the question -- Is it worth the time investment?

Right now I'm not sure that I want to spend time to even find out.

First let me state that without question, Cataclysm is the most polished, deep, and technologically advanced MMO on the market.  It far surpass what Blizzard has put out in the past from our original battles in Azeroth, through the portal to the Outland in Burning Crusade, and finally our journey to Northrend in Wrath of the Lich King.  The revisioning of the world is amazing and the writing is tighter than ever before.  There are so many great things that I can't list them all but here are my favorites:

- The Zen'Kiki quests in Western Plaguelands
- The imagery of Thrall holding back the implosion of the world in the Maelstrom
- The Black Dragon Quests in the Badlands
- The Caravan Quests in Eastern Plaguelands
- The Dragonmaw questline for the Horde in Twilight Highlands
- The Wildhammer questline for the Alliance in Twilight Highlands
- Uldum

That's off the top of my head but notice that for me everything is quest related.  That's because I haven't hit a single heroic.  I just don't feel the need to face the frustration of heroics anymore and that's the problem Blizzard faces.  They are facing a Cataclysm of a different sort whether they realize it or not.

The seeds of the current situation were sown in Vanilla WoW.  99% of the players then weren't in a raiding guild so very few ever saw Naxxramas or even Neferion/Ragnoros.  I was lucky in that I got into my current guild about halfway through Burning Crusade so we were just entering Naxx when Burning Crusade hit.  Burning Crusade crushed most 40 man raiding guilds.  The reason was 40 man raiding went away and was replaced for most people by 10 man raiding in Karazhan.  This killed just about every raiding guild on every server.  My guild was hit hard and went from about 50 members to about 10 before we were able to right the ship and rebuild.  One positive is the best players stayed and most were anxious to be an end game so we quickly found many other like minded players to fill our ranks.  A few months later we were knocking out boss after boss and quicker than anyone imagined we were the best raiding guild on our server.  One thing we didn't notice is that most other guilds on our server were still stuck in Karazhan.  The reason for this is simple. Unlike me, most people didn't start playing this game until well into Vanilla or Burning Crusade and the World of Warcraft has a steep learning curve.  I know I spent my first year just doing quests and travelling the world before I got the itch to raid.  At that point I had exhausted all the existing content and decided it was time to try to get some of the leet purple gear I enviously inspected on other players.  I'm sure my process was similar to most other players.  WoW rose from 2-3 million players in its first year to about 10 million players in the beginning half of Burning Crusade.  Considering that the game now has about 12 million subscribers today it is pretty safe to say that even with defections, a majority of players in the game are BC babies.  By BC babies I mean that they went through their noob phase in Burning Crusade.  These BC babies loved that expansion and especially Karazhan as it was tailor made for beginning raiders.  At the end of Burning Crusade these BC  babies were no longer noobs but veterans ready to tackle bigger challenges.  Blizzard decided to meet this challenge by focusing on making raiding more accessible to the masses in Wrath of the Lich King.

When Wrath of the Lich king was released, my guild was hit hard by defections.  Actually the defections begin a lot earlier than the release of WotLK they started partway through BC when we beat Illidan.  All MMO's have a simple strategy that is similar to what you'd see at a dog track with its participants chasing a rabbit that is always just out of reach.  Instead of a rabbit, MMO's use player itemization (gear, pets, mounts, titles) to entice its members to continue to play.  Hardcore raiding is almost like a part time job in that you have to devote a consistent least 12-20 hours a week to be good at it.  The time demands/schedule are more that most people can do and many just stay around so they don't let their teammates down.  All this ends when a goal is reached and many ask themselves, "Do I want to continue playing at the same level?"  This leads to many players demoting themselves to a more casual status but my observation is that most quit after a short while because it is hard to see others scaling the mountain while you sit in base camp watching them ascend.  For most former raiders it is easier to just leave the game entirely and tackle a different game with (hopefully) less time demands.  Some return but the fire is never the same as it was when you first tackled raid content.

In many ways, Wrath of the Lich King could be called the People's WoW.  Gear was pretty easy to acquire as a result of Blizzard's new philosophy to make raiding more open to the masses.  People that had never even come close to end game before were now in pick up groups and beating the 10 and 25 versions of bosses.  Of course they weren't doing the heroic versions of the bosses but that fact didn't matter to most.  The time demands weren't as drastic as needed in a heroic guild but it still required a consistent 10 hours every week if you wanted the best gear.  By the end of the expansion the number of people in tier gear were many orders of magnitude greater than what had happened in Burning Crusade.  It didn't matter that they didn't beat the heroic version of the boss.  In their mind they were an end game raider.

Then Cataclysm hit and all that gear was suddenly worthless.

I remember when that happened to me back in Burning Crusade.  At first I was angry that I was replacing gear I had spent months working to get replaced by the first quest I did in Outland.  My general dissatisfaction continued for a long while until I accepted it and the hunger to be an end game raider returned.  This dissatisfaction is occurring all over Azeroth right now.  Despite general agreement that the content is better than ever many people aren't happy with the game.  Most everyone playing has a level 80 character and has already leveled them or is working towards getting them to 85.  The thing is that well over 50% of the new content is in the 1-60 zones.  Starting a new character is easier than ever and the quest are fun but its a bit hollow.  I think the reason is once you've done the level 80 quests it really doesn't have the same impact to be beating a level 25 gnoll with visions of world domination.  We just beat the Lich King for pete's sake!

I remember back when the game first started a reporter asked one of the lead designers how long they thought the game would last and would they do a sequel at that point.  The response was telling in that he said that they were a bit lucky in that they released their game at the same time that Everquest decided to abandon EQ1 and release EQ2.  That enabled players to rethink their loyalties to Everquest and many of them ended up playing World of Warcraft instead.  He said that Blizzard would never make the same mistake as they'd just let the world evolve.

That is exactly what Blizzard did with Cataclysm but there is a bit of a flaw in their thinking.  People are tired of the game.  People are tired of the world.  People have been to the mountaintop and don't want to slog through the marshes anymore.  They want a new challenge and I am beginning to wonder if that challenge can be found in Azeroth.  Rift was recently released and has well over a million subscribers already making it the most successful game launch after WoW.  Later this year The Old Republic is going to be launched and will easily match those numbers.  As people only have so much money to spend on online entertainment does this mean it is the beginning of the end for WoW?  No one can answer that with certainty.  Blizzard has done better with WoW than anyone ever predicted so it is hard to bet against them.  The thing is the World of Warcraft has always reminded me of an overdemanding girlfriend at times.  You stay for the benefits but after a while you have to ask yourself if the benefits are greater than the cost.  Now there's some new girls in town  so WoW player base is asking themselves, "Do I want old and busted or the new hotness?"

My money is on the new hotness.

If you run BGs as alliance you will eventually see someone rage quit with the parting words of "Alliance sucks!".  As I've played Alliance for pretty much my whole WoW career I usually just ignore the comments and requeue hoping for a better result from the next one.  I've always thought that the complaints had no merit as my win/loss ration is usually close to 50% on all my alliance toons.  As an experiment I decided to level an 80 Horde hunter I had on another realm and it was a real eyeopener.

I've only played about a 100 games at level 85 but I was amazed at the difference.  First there is much less talking than occurs on the Alliance side.  In one of my first Alterac Valley's no one was talking so I put up the comment, "D Galv?".  The only response I got was, "Uh yeah obviously" and then we proceeded to roll over the Alliance.  At this point my overall winning percentage as a horde player is around 60% but many of those losses were during the leveling process where the competition is much tighter.  Given my experience so far I think there are only a few things that affect the winning percentage - BG Design, Racials, and Playerbase.

[b]BG Design[/b] - One of the issues with BGs is the sides aren't set up as mirror images so despite Blizzards efforts some of the instances do have advantages.  The funny thing is advantages change as strategies morph over time.  For instance, the Horde historically have considered the Alterac Valley setup as unfair to them since the Alliance can get to their base much quicker.  This has caused the Horde into the more defensive "D Galv / recap towers" strategy that will win almost every time if a majority of players help.  I know when I play alliance that my only worry is when the Horde stack on Galv.  The downside is can result in a turtle but most Horde will take the 200+ honor in 30-40 minutes rather than a 15 minute loss that results in 50 honor.  No other battleground is as extreme as AV but the water surrounding the Horde base on Twin Peaks and the differences between BET/MT in EotS are other examples.  Do these give one side a huge advantage?  Not enough in my opinion to cause the variations we see in winning percentage.

[b]Racials[/b] - Another possible explanation is racial abilities.  Just looking at the hunter class someone on EJ calculated the following dps differences by race using an orc hunter as the baseline (non-dps abilities in parenthesis):

+66 - Troll w/ Bow (Da Voodoo Shuffle - Snare Resistance)
+0 - Orc: 0 (Hardiness)
-80 - Troll w/o Bow (Da Voodoo Shuffle for snare resistance, Regeneration)
-154 - Worgen (Darkflight for speed burst, Aberration for decreased curse durations)
-163 - Goblins (Rocket Jump for short burst movements)
-187 - Blood Elf (Arcane Torrent - silence and 15 focus every 2 mins, +resistance to magic)
-263 - Draenei: (Shadow Resistance and Gift of the Naaru for a heal)
-180 - Dwarf w/ Gun (Frost Resistance and Stoneform to remove some ailments)
-409 - Night Elf (Shadowmeld, Nature Resistance, Quickness to avoid damage)
-429 - Human (Every Man for Himself to shake off speed reduction and traps)
-435 - Forsaken (WotF to remove certain status effects and Shadow Resistance)
-444 - Dwarf w/o Gun (Frost Resistance and Stoneform to remove some ailments)
-444 - Taurens (War Stomp stun, Nature Resistance, and Endurance for extra health)
 N/A - Gnome - Cannot be a hunter (Thank god!)
Source: http://elitistjerks.com/f74/t112408-[cataclysm]_marksmanship/#2_1_The_Spec

Looking at this list it certainly seems like the horde have a definite advantage and some quick math puts it between 1-2% dps.  The thing is it is hard to put a number on the non-dps abilities.  For instance the racial Every Man for Himself allows humans to take another dps trinket instead of the PVP trinket that is pretty much a requirement for every other class.  That would more than make up for the loss.  Still, it appears the horde do have a distinct advantage in this area.

Playerbase: This is a tricky subject but my experience is that I win 50% of my games as alliance and 60% as horde.  I realize that I haven't played enough games to be statistically relevant but my experience mirrors what many say on the forums.  You'd think that with millions of players playing the game that it would be impossible for one side to consistently have better players than the other side but I think the answer is pretty simple.

Right after release a majority of players rolled the alliance as most people could relate to them better, especially the under 18 group.  When battlegrounds came out the Horde was outnumbered but as a result they had almost instant queues.  This lead to the generally accepted saying, "If you want to PVE - Roll Alliance, If you want to PVP - Roll Horde".  Over time the population disparities lessened but the thought that Horde was the faction to roll if you wanted to PVP stayed intact.  When new players come into the game, if they are interested in PVP, the more serious players will reroll.  This isn't a huge part of the playerbase but its enough to improve the general quality of the Horde teams you get in PVP.

Every time I lose a BG it is almost always because the other team played better.  Sure they might have had better gear but the key is knowing your class.  In my experience the most frustrating BGs are where you see everyone in the group is around ilvl350 but they spend most of the game in the middle of the field and at the end of the game you have double or triple their dps.  These players had the gear they just don't know what to do with it.  The bottom line in my opinion different battleground design or a 1% difference in dps isn't meaningful in the big picture.  It's all about the playerbase and that is the key difference.  Blizzard can't force players into a specific faction but the Horde's current popularity might fix it over time.  That is because so many people have moved to the Horde to PVP they now have queues instead of the alliance.  This may be enough to move more good players back to the alliance but I doubt many really good players move without the racial issue being addressed.  I know for myself, that I am enjoying Horde despite the 5-10 minute wait for a battleground.

TLDR : If you want to PVP, play Horde.